Policy Brief
Population policy
Population policy has been a contentious issue in Jersey for many years with general concern about the rate of increase of the population although more recently tempered by an understanding of the implications of an ageing population and the difficulties that businesses and public bodies have in recruiting staff.
Basic statistics
Key figures for population growth from the decennial censuses are –
Year – Population – Increase
1991 – 84,082 – 10.6%
2001 – 87,186 – 3.7%
2011 – 97,857 – 10.2%
2021 – 103,267 – 5.5%
The 2021 census figure was significantly lower than previous annual estimates had suggested.
On 24 November 2023, the Government published Population and migration statistics update 2022. This showed that the population has been stable for five years. The population in 2018 was estimated at 103,300 and in both 2021 and 2022 at 103,200. The natural increase in population (births-deaths) has fallen steadily from a peak of 340 in 2012 to 80 in 2021 and -90 in 2022. Every year between 2004 and 2018 there was net immigration of at least 300. Between 2019 and 2022 there was net emigration of 320.
The Report on the 2021 Jersey Census was published in December 2022. Some of key statistics included in the summary of the report are –
Total population
- The total resident population of Jersey on 21 March 2021 was 103,267
- The increase of 5,400 from the 2011 census was due to:
- natural growth (excess of births minus deaths): 2,100 persons
- net inward migration: 3,300
- The population density was 859 persons per sq km
Parish populations
- Just over a third (35%) of the total population lived in St Helier
- The smallest parish population was St Mary (2% of the population)
- St Helier had the highest population density (3,716 persons per sq km), Trinity the lowest (267 per sq km)
Age and sex structure
- The average age of residents was 42.3 years
- The dependency ratio was 52%, an increase from 46% in 2011
- The number of people aged 65 and over increased by over a quarter (29%) since 2011
- Females accounted for 51% of the population
Place of birth
- Half (50%) of Jersey residents were born in Jersey
- 29,598 (29%) residents were born in the British Isles
- 8,280 (8%) residents were born in Portugal/Madeira
- 2,808 (3%) residents were born in Poland
Policy
In 2021 the States Assembly amended the States of Jersey Law to include a requirement for the Council of Ministers to maintain a common population policy and to update that policy annually.
On 8 February 2022 the States Assembly approved the first Common Population Policy. Unfortunately this does not exist in a stand-alone form but only as part of a proposition to the Assembly.
This policy document includes an overview of the then current position and identified actions for 2022 that fell within the published Government Plan 2022-2025. It also sets out a proposed format and content for future reports. The document states that the overarching aim of the common population policy of the Council of Ministers is:
“to progressively reduce Jersey’s reliance on net inward migration within the currently agreed Common Strategic Policy”
The policy is based on two clear principles:
The population of Jersey lives on a small island and an ever-growing population would put more and more pressure on finite land resources. As such, the government will take action to reduce the need to grow the population further through net inward migration whenever this is feasible. The long-term aim of the population policy should be to achieve a sustainable rate of population change, to ensure that current generations do not pass on a growing problem to future generations while ensuring that Jersey remains open for business.
Within the long-term aim of reducing reliance on continued inward migration, the Government will always face new challenges and there may be situations in which the long-term aim of reducing the need for net inward migration will need to be paused or even reversed in order to address specific challenges from time to time. Notwithstanding any such temporary challenges, the underlying principle and vision remains a long-term reduction in reliance on net inward migration.
The Government Plan 2023 - 2026 stated that the Council of Ministers policy on population would be published in June 2023.
The chapter for the Chief Minister in the Ministerial plans, published on 12 October 2022, included the following on population policy –
Progressing population and migration policy by:
• developing the Council of Ministers’ Common Population Policy for presentation to the States Assembly, in line with the requirements of the States of Jersey, by end June 2023.
• re-structuring operational systems to effectively manage responsive migration controls.
• providing resources to collect accurate and timely statistics on populations (sic) trends including migration and immigration volumes and analysis.
• leading the Population and Skills Ministerial Group which will provide a central political forum for matters relating to population policy, the employment market and the skills needs of the Island.
• updating the 2(1)(e) policy to enhance the economic, social, and benefits (sic) to the Island from a fewer number of 2(1)(e) applicants, while valuing our high value resident community. This will include a review of available performance data and industry-engagement.
On 12 June 2023 the Government published the Common Population Policy Annual report 2023. This report is largely a summary of existing policies relevant to the population and lists “actions and themes” under the headings of “develop a sustainable economy”, “plan for changing demographic” and “promote equity”.
The most important new information in the report are estimates of Jersey’s population under different assumptions about population growth, using the 2021 census figures as the base. (More detailed modelling of population projections was published in December 2023 Population projections 2023 - 2080.)
The key statistics are –
- With net nil migration the population will be relatively stable until 2040. With net migration of 325 a year the population will increase to about 111,000 and with net migration of 700 a year to 120,000.
- Like most countries the population of Jersey is ageing. The working population is currently about 67,000. With net nil migration the working population will fall to 61,000 in 2040. With net migration of 325 a year it will fall to 66,000 and with net migration of 700 a year it will increase to 73,000.
- In 2021 there were 1.93 people of working age for every person of non-working age. With net nil migration the ratio will fall to 1.42 in 2040. With net migration of 325 a year it will fall to 1.50 and even with net migration of 700 a year it will fall to 1.56.
- The estimated population required to maintain living standards is calculated to be 128,000 in 2030 and 150,000 in 2040.
The Executive Summary of the report states that –
The policy intent of Ministers is that our community thrives, success should see living standards – defined as real GVA/person - to rise. However, indicative modelling suggests that to simply maintain current living standards, the total population could need to be as high as 150,000 by 2040. Ministers are not prepared to accept this scenario.
Sustained economic growth would enable living standards to be maintained with lower levels of inward migration and a smaller population. The Council of Ministers’ policy direction is to support economic growth both through increasing productivity in existing Island sectors and developing new, highly productive sectors. This will help to maintain the 2040 population level well below the 150,000 level.
The Future Economy Programme is developing a range of positive measures to improve current levels of economic activity, identify new economic sectors and create high quality, sustainable growth. The Economic Strategy is due to be published in September 2023. At this stage it is anticipated that inward migration will still be required but at a reasonable and sustainable level.
Integral to the identification of economic policies will be the capacity of Jersey’s infrastructure and the extent to which this may act as a constraint on population growth, or the rate of population growth.
Future developments.
End 2023 - publication of detailed population projections.
Further information
The best analysis of population policy issues is a report presented to the States Assembly for a debate in March 2021.
Jersey’s Population – A History (Mark Boleat, Société Jersiaise, 2022). A detailed paper on trends in the population of Jersey and the development of population policy.
There is a comprehensive database of documents on Jersey’s population on the boleat.com website.