Population policy

Population policy has been a contentious issue in Jersey for many years with general concern about the rate of increase of the population. More recently this has been tempered by an understanding of the implications of an ageing population and the difficulties that businesses and public bodies have in recruiting staff.

Summary

• Jersey’s population increased from 84,082 in 1991 to 103,267 in 2021, the population growth having been driven primarily by net immigration rather than by natural growth.
• The total population has now been virtually stable since 2018, marking a significant change from the ten previous years when population growth averaged about 1,000 a year. The natural increase in population (births-deaths) has fallen steadily from a peak of 340 in 2012 to -110 in 2023. Net immigration has also sharply reduced.
• The size of the population and immigration are politically important issues. Measures have been implemented designed to constrain the population growth, principally by imposing restrictions on the ability to work and to buy or rent property in Jersey.
• There is a trade-off between the rate of net immigration and the needs of the economy. With net nil migration the population would fall by 2040, but the dependency ratio would increase significantly from 53% to 64%.
• Since 2022 the Council of Ministers has been required to maintain a “common population policy” and to update that policy annually. The first policy, published in February 2022, set out the overarching aim as “to progressively reduce Jersey’s reliance on net inward migration ”.
• The 2024 update, published in December 2024, identified three areas of focus: improved data, improving the flexibility of the island’s migration and immigration controls and “Ageing Well” - a move towards an ageing island demographic.

Basic statistics

Key figures for population growth from the decennial censuses are –

Year Population Increase

1991 84,082 10.6%

2001 87,186 3.7%

2011 97,857 10.2%

2021 103,267 5.5%

The Report on the 2021 Jersey Census was published in December 2022. Some of key statistics included in the summary of the report are –

Total population

• The total resident population of Jersey on 21 March 2021 was 103,267
• The increase of 5,400 from the 2011 census was due to:
• natural growth (excess of births minus deaths): 2,100 persons
• net inward migration: 3,300
• The population density was 859 persons per sq km

Parish populations

• Just over a third (35%) of the total population lived in St Helier
• The smallest parish population was St Mary (2% of the population)
• St Helier had the highest population density (3,716 persons per sq km), Trinity the lowest (267 per sq km)

Age and sex structure

• The average age of residents was 42.3 years
• The dependency ratio was 52%, an increase from 46% in 2011
• The number of people aged 65 and over increased by over a quarter (29%) since 2011
• Females accounted for 51% of the population

Place of birth

• Half (50%) of Jersey residents were born in Jersey
• 29,598 (29%) of residents were born in the British Isles
• 8,280 (8%) of residents were born in Portugal/Madeira
• 2,808 (3%) of residents were born in Poland

Population growth in recent years has been driven primarily by net immigration rather than by natural growth, the excess of births over deaths. The table shows the official estimates for population change in recent years, published on 25 September 2024, Population and migration, December 2023, together with the official estimates for the annual figures to 2011.

Jersey’s Population growth, 2000-2023

Note: the figures have been individually rounded so subtotals may not add up to totals.

The table shows that from 2000 to 2023 natural growth averaged 173 a year while net immigration averaged 459 a year. The total population has now been virtually stable since 2018, marking a significant change from the ten previous years when population growth averaged about 1,000 a year. The population was estimated at 103,290 in 2018 and 103,650 in 2023. The natural increase in population (births - deaths) has fallen steadily from a peak of 340 in 2012 to 80 in 2021, -100 in 2023 and -110 in 2023. Net immigration has also sharply reduced. The figures for the last few years have been distorted by the effects of covid, with significant net emigration in 2021 followed by the highest net immigration figure since 2016 in 2023.

Policy

As in many other jurisdictions the size of the population and immigration are politically important issues. This is particularly the case for Jersey given the very high rate of population growth in the post-War period. A series of measures has been implemented designed to constrain the population growth, principally by imposing restrictions on the ability to work and to buy or rent property in Jersey by those without an existing residential qualification. The current legal requirements are set out in the Control of Housing Work (Jersey) Law 2012.

It is fair to say that Jersey has struggled to develop a coherent population policy. For many years there were “targets” for the total size of the population or for population growth. However, there are no policy instruments capable of meeting such targets, given that Jersey has no control over the number of births and deaths, emigration or the number of people returning to the Island with residential qualifications, and that the Island needs to attract immigrants to do the jobs for which local people either are not qualified to do or choose not to do. These factors apply in many other developed nations but are particularly sensitive in a small island.

Policy has recently moved away from numerical targets, with a recognition of the need to ensure that the economy is supported in the face of an ageing population. The issues are well described in a paper prepared for a debate in the States Assembly in March 2021 Developing a common population policy.

In 2021 the States Assembly amended the States of Jersey Law to include a requirement for the Council of Ministers to maintain a common population policy and to update that policy annually.

On 8 February 2022 the States Assembly approved the first Common Population Policy. This policy document included an overview of the then current position and identified actions for 2022 that fell within the published Government Plan 2022-2025. It also set out a proposed format and content for future reports. The document stated that the overarching aim of the common population policy of the then Council of Ministers was:

to progressively reduce Jersey’s reliance on net inward migration within the currently agreed Common Strategic Policy”

The policy is based on two clear principles:

The population of Jersey lives on a small island and an ever-growing population would put more and more pressure on finite land resources. As such, the government will take action to reduce the need to grow the population further through net inward migration whenever this is feasible. The long-term aim of the population policy should be to achieve a sustainable rate of population change, to ensure that current generations do not pass on a growing problem to future generations while ensuring that Jersey remains open for business.

Within the long-term aim of reducing reliance on continued inward migration, the Government will always face new challenges and there may be situations in which the long-term aim of reducing the need for net inward migration will need to be paused or even reversed in order to address specific challenges from time to time. Notwithstanding any such temporary challenges, the underlying principle and vision remains a long-term reduction in reliance on net inward migration.

On 12 June 2023 the Government published Common Population Policy Annual report 2023. This report was largely a summary of existing policies relevant to the population and listed “actions and themes” under the headings of “develop a sustainable economy”, “plan for changing demographic” and “promote equity”.

The most important new information in the report was estimates of Jersey’s population under different assumptions about population growth, using the 2021 census figures as the base. (More detailed modelling of population projections was published in December 2023 Population projections 2023 - 2080.)

The key statistics were –

• With net nil migration the population will be relatively stable until 2040. With net migration of 325 a year the population will increase to about 111,000 and with net migration of 700 a year to 120,000.
• Like most countries the population of Jersey is ageing. The working population is currently about 67,000. With net nil migration the working population will fall to 61,000 in 2040. With net migration of 325 a year it will fall to 66,000 and with net migration of 700 a year it will increase to 73,000.
• In 2021 there were 1.93 people of working age for every person of non-working age. With net nil migration the ratio will fall to 1.42 in 2040. With net migration of 325 a year it will fall to 1.50 and even with net migration of 700 a year it will fall to 1.56.
• The estimated population required to maintain living standards is calculated to be 128,000 in 2030 and 150,000 in 2040.

The Executive Summary of the report stated that –

The policy intent of Ministers is that our community thrives, success should see living standards – defined as real GVA/person - to rise. However, indicative modelling suggests that to simply maintain current living standards, the total population could need to be as high as 150,000 by 2040. Ministers are not prepared to accept this scenario.

Sustained economic growth would enable living standards to be maintained with lower levels of inward migration and a smaller population. The Council of Ministers’ policy direction is to support economic growth both through increasing productivity in existing Island sectors and developing new, highly productive sectors. This will help to maintain the 2040 population level well below the 150,000 level.

The Future Economy Programme is developing a range of positive measures to improve current levels of economic activity, identify new economic sectors and create high quality, sustainable growth. The Economic Strategy is due to be published in September 2023. At this stage it is anticipated that inward migration will still be required but at a reasonable and sustainable level.

Integral to the identification of economic policies will be the capacity of Jersey’s infrastructure and the extent to which this may act as a constraint on population growth, or the rate of population growth.

On 20 December 2024 the Government published Common Population Policy Annual Report 2024. The executive summary is reproduced below .

The Council of Ministers has identified the following three areas of focus for this year’s annual report on population issues.

• Data. The improved levels of analysis provided in the Statistics Jersey reporting on population issues are giving us a more detailed understanding of our resident and temporary population. Continuing to improve the collection and analysis of data to track population trends is a key priority.
• Flexibility. The Council of Ministers is committed to improving the flexibility of the island’s migration and immigration controls, to ensure that Jersey has the required workforce to maintain and build on our current standards of living.
• Ageing Well. The data clearly show a move towards an ageing island demographic. The fact we are living longer is a positive one. In this report, we lay out an Ageing Well Roadmap.

The report identifies actions and objectives under these themes to guide work across government, to ensure that population issues are fully considered within policy and decision-making. In addition to these formal themes, this Council is also clear in its aim to ensure that all workers in the Island are well supported and valued, paying particular attention to migrant workers and their specific needs.

Data

The Council of Ministers believes it is important that considerations around population policy are informed by detailed and accurate data. The significant progress made in this area allows access to much richer and more timely data assisting decision making. The analysis in respect of 31 December 2023 has highlighted that:

• Jersey’s overall population has remained stable in the last 5 years. A marked difference from the high levels of population growth seen in the preceding 5 years.
• Jersey has required inward migration to maintain its working age population, which has also remained stable over the last 5 years.
• Jersey’s population is getting older, both in the population aged 65 or over, and those aged 80 and older.
• There has been an increase in the number of people in Jersey from outside the United Kingdom and Europe (‘rest of the world nationality’), while the number of people with a European nationality has reduced.

Flexibility

Ensuring that controls are flexible and can adapt quickly to support changing market conditions is a key priority for this government. Work to improve flexibility is well advanced: the Work Permit Policy has recently been updated; and changes to the operation of the Control of Housing and Work Law (CHWL), will be proposed in the new year.

Work permits – improved flexibility

• Expand the roles eligible for the long-term work permit, to provide more options for individuals and businesses.
• Grant permissions to carry out supplementary part-time work, to increase the productivity of those already on the island.
• Revise the salary thresholds, to ensure fair pay for those moving to the island for work.
• Permit workers able to seek new employment after 6 months, to create flexibility for employees.

CHWL legal framework – improved flexibility

• Update the CHWL Regulations, to allow legal controls to be updated quickly in light of changing circumstances.
• Consider the expansion of roles eligible for Licensed permissions, to improve the supply of workers into key sectors.
• Consider the number of years required to access the qualified rental market, to ease barriers to workers finding accommodation.

Flexible workforce – Skills and productivity

As part of the Common Strategic Policy 2024-2026, the Council of Ministers pledged to bring the minimum wage to two-thirds of the median wage. Alongside this, the Government will provide employers with a package of financial support measures worth £20 million over the next 2 years to improve their skills, productivity and competitiveness. The ongoing Future Economy Programme also emphasises the importance of creating a skilled workforce to enable long-term sustainable economic growth.

Ageing well roadmap

People in the western world can now expect to live almost twice as long as they would have 100 years ago. Many governments are taking action to prepare for the changes that this will bring.

Ministers consider that the Better Later Life strategy set out by the New Zealand government provides a useful basis for the Ageing Well roadmap for Jersey.

Issues and actions will be embedded across all government activity and will be considered across 5 areas:

1. Financial Security and Economic Participation

2. Healthy Ageing and Access to Services

3. Diverse Housing Choices and Options

4. Participation and Social Inclusion

5. Accessible environments.

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