Jersey's Population

Introduction

The Island of Jersey, 118 square kilometres, currently has a population of about 103,000, and since 1950 has experienced a rapid rate of population growth. The size of Jersey’s population and immigration have been on the political agenda in the Island for well over 100 years. This is not surprising, as there have been high rates of migration into and out of the Island.

Jersey’s population growth has been variable – very rapid growth in the first half of the 19^th century, decline then recovery from 1850 to 1950, and rapid growth subsequently. Immigration has played a significant part in population growth, but large-scale emigration, particularly of young men, has also been an almost permanent feature.

This paper sets out the key data on Jersey’s population and discusses the evolution of population policy.

Long-term trends

Long terms trends in Jersey’s population are analysed in the book Jersey’s population – a history, on which this section is based. The earliest estimates of the population of Jersey come from historians and inevitably have a significant margin of error. Human occupation of Jersey first occurred during glacial times, with the earliest reliable dated human occupation going back around 250,000 years. It has been estimated that between 4,000 and 3,000 BC the population was between 2,000 and 4,000, based on between 10 and 20 separate communities each with a population of between 200 and 250. The population then seems to have declined to about 500 in 2000 BC. There are then no estimates until 1050 when using the churches as a reference point a population of around 6,000 can be determined.

The first substantive “census” in Jersey was the 1331 Extente, sometimes referred to as the Jersey Domesday Book. This suggests that there were around 2,000 houses in the Island, which implies a population of 10,000-12,000. The Black Death in 1348-49 had a devastating effect and by the early 15^th century the population may have fallen to 4,000-5,000. Subsequent estimates suggest a population of 7,000 in 1541, 16,200 in 1685 and 20,000 in 1788.

The first formal census was conducted in 1821. Since then, censuses have taken place every ten years, and for a period every five years, with the exception of 1941. Table 1 shows the figures from each of the decennial censuses, and also an estimate of the population in mid-1939. The table shows the percentage increases, calculated over a ten-year period, for the “headline” total population figures from each census. However, the percentages are misleading because of significant changes in definitions (particularly from 1981 when resident population was recorded rather than census night population) and one-off factors. The figures in the final column attempt to correct for these factors so that the percentage increases are on a more comparable basis. It will be seen that the corrected figures show a smoother trend than the uncorrected figures.

Table 1 Population of Jersey, 1821-2021

Notes:

1. The percentage increases to 1939 and 1951 are calculated at a ten-yearly rate to be comparable with the other data.

2. There are four significant discontinuities in the series –

• The 1821 and 1831 censuses excluded the military population, seamen ashore and people on board vessels adjacent to the Island. From 1841 these groups were included although with some variations.
• Up to 1951 the figures included visitors.
• From 1981 resident population rather than census night population was recorded.
• From 2011 the figures include the estimated “undercount”.

3. In two of the years the figures are distorted by special factors –

• In 1871 many refugees were present as a consequence of the Franco-Prussian War.
• In 1921 the census took place on the night of 19/20 June instead of the originally planned date of 24 April. There were 4,875 visitors recorded in 1921 as against 1,940 in 1931, suggesting that the 1921 figure was inflated by about 3,000. The 1931 census report suggested a 6.6% increase in the resident population between 1921 and 1931.

Four distinct periods of population change can be identified –

• Very rapid growth between 1821 and 1851 when the population doubled from 28,600 to 57,020. This was during the boom period for the Jersey economy, cod fishing and related industries playing a major part. The population increase was largely explained by immigration, mainly from England but also from Scotland, Ireland and France.
• A sharp decline to 52,445 in 1881 reflecting an economic slump in Jersey precipitated by the decline of the cod fishing and related maritime industries.
• A fairly stable population until 1931 when the population was 51,080.
• In 1951 the population was 57,310, almost exactly the same as the figure 100 years earlier. The period since from then until 2018 was one of continual growth such that the population is currently estimated at around 103,000.

Population growth in recent years has been driven primarily by net immigration rather than by natural growth, the excess of births over deaths. Table 2 shows the official estimates for population change in recent years published on 24 November 2023, Population and migration statistics update 2022 update , together with the official estimates for the annual figures to 2011.

Table 2 Jersey’s Population growth, 2000-2023

Note: the figures have been individually rounded so subtotals may not add up to totals.

The table shows that from 2000 to 2023 natural growth averaged 173 a year while net immigration averaged 459 a year. There has been a significant decline in the natural growth in recent years from a peak of 340 in 2012 to a net decline in 2022 and 2023.

The total population has now been virtually stable since 2018, marking a significant change from the ten previous years when population growth averaged about 1,000 a year.

Population trends in Jersey over the long term have been in line with the position in England and also Guernsey. Jersey’s population has grown substantially less than England’s in the whole of the period since 1821 but growth has been more rapid since 1951.

Population characteristics – age, sex and household type

The decennial census provides the only comprehensive analysis of the makeup of the population.

The population of Jersey is heavily concentrated in three of the southern parishes - St Helier, St Saviour and St Brelade, which accounted for 59% of the total population in 2021.

Table 3 Population of Jersey, analysed by age and sex, 2021

The table shows that there were marginally more females and males, this largely being accounted for by the 80 and over category where women outnumbered men by 44%. There has been a steady increase in the population aged over 60 from 7.4% in 1821 to 14.7% in 1921, 20.6% in 2011 and 24.7% in 2021.

The 2021 census estimated that there were 44,583 households. Table 4 shows the breakdown.

Table 4 Household types, 2021

The table shows that 40% of households had just one adult and 25% comprised one or more pensioner.

Population characteristics – place of birth and nationality

In 2021 exactly half the population (50%) was born in Jersey, 29% in the British Isles other than Jersey, 8% in Portugal (largely the island of Madeira), 3% in Poland and 11% elsewhere. Between 1981 and 2021 the proportion born in Jersey fell from 53% to 50%, the proportion born elsewhere in the British Isles fell from 37% to 29%, the proportion born in Portugal increased from 3% to 8% and the proportion born elsewhere increased from 7% to 14%, much of this latter figure representing immigration from Poland.

The Census asked people to identify which ethnic category they felt best described themselves. 44% of Jersey residents considered their ethnicity to be Jersey while 31% considered themselves to be British. 9% considered themselves to be Portuguese or Madeiran, a higher figure than those actually born in Portugal or Madeira, reflecting that people identify with the ethnicity of their parents to some extent.

Population characteristics – religion

The Church of England is the “established” religion in Jersey, the Dean of Jersey technically being a member of the States Assembly, although with no vote. In practice, Jersey is a secular society in which all religions are welcome.

The most recent data on religion is from The Jersey Annual Social Survey 2015. 54% of adults regarded themselves as having a religion, 39% said they did not have a religion and 7% were not sure. More women (58%) than men (50%) said they had a religion. Having a religion was strongly correlated with age, the proportion rising steadily from 37% in the 16-34 age group to 78% in the 65+ age group.

Of those who had a religion 97% specified Christian, divided between Catholic (43%), Anglican (44%) and other (13%). Those born in Poland or Portugal/Madeira were 100% Catholic. Of those born in Jersey 52% were Anglican and 34% Catholic.

Other religions stated were Buddhist, Hindu, Jewish, Muslim and Sikh.

Population policy

As in many other jurisdictions the size of the population and immigration are politically important issues. This is particularly the case for Jersey given the very high rate of population growth in the post-War period. A series of measures has been implemented designed to constrain the population growth, principally by imposing restrictions on the ability to work and to buy or rent property in Jersey by those without an existing residential qualification. The current legal requirements are set out in the Control of Housing and Work Law 2012.

It is fair to say that Jersey has struggled to develop a coherent population policy. For many years there were “targets” for the total size of the population or for population growth. However, there are no policy instruments capable of meeting such targets, given that Jersey has no control over the number of births and deaths, emigration or the number of people returning to the Island with residential qualifications, and that the Island needs to attract immigrants to do the jobs for which local people either are not qualified to do or choose not to do. These factors apply in many other developed nations but are particularly sensitive in a small island. Policy has moved away from numerical targets, with a recognition of the need to ensure that the economy is supported in the face of an ageing population. The issues are well described in a paper prepared for a debate in the States Assembly in March 2021 Developing a common population policy.

The table shows that with net nil migration the population would fall by 2040, but the dependency ratio would increase significantly to 64.0%. Net migration of 1,000 a year would result in a 16.6% increase in the population by 2040 but with only a very slight rise in the dependency ratio. The key factor is the ageing population. Even with net nil migration the number of people 65 and over is estimated to increase from 19,600 in 2022 to 26,100 in 2040.

Table 5 Population of Jersey in 2040 on alternative migration assumptions

The table shows that with net nil migration the population would fall by 2040, but the dependency ratio would increase significantly to 64.0%. Net migration of 1,000 a year would result in a 16.6% increase in the population by 2040 but with only a very slight rise in the dependency ratio. The key factor is the ageing population. Even with net nil migration the number of people 65 and over is estimated to increase from 19,600 in 2022 to 26,100 in 2040.

There is a general wish in Jersey, expressed very strongly by some, for a population policy that would allow no or only a small growth in the size of the population. However, the inevitable consequence of any such policy, assuming it could be successfully implemented, would be significant labour shortages and an increasing tax burden on a reducing working population.

In February 2022 the States Assembly endorsed a common population policy which aims “to achieve a stable population position for Jersey, where reliance on inward migration has been significantly reduced in the longer term” This is based on two principles –

The population of Jersey lives on a small island and an ever-growing population would put more and more pressure on finite land resources. As such, the government will take action to reduce the need to grow the population further through net inward migration whenever this is feasible. The long-term aim of the population policy should be to achieve a sustainable rate of population change, to ensure that current generations do not pass on a growing problem to future generations while ensuring that Jersey remains open for business.

Within the long-term aim of reducing reliance on continued inward migration, the Government will always face new challenges and there may be situations in which the long-term aim of reducing the need for net inward migration will need to be paused or even reversed in order to address specific challenges from time to time. Notwithstanding any such temporary challenges, the underlying principle and vision remains a long-term reduction in reliance on net inward migration.

Three specific actions were mentioned in this report –

• Improving the quality and quantity of data and making better use of that data.
• Encouraging and enhancing productivity activity within the resident population.
• More responsive controls.

On 12 June 2023, the Government published Common Population Policy Annual report 2023. The most important new information in the report are estimates of Jersey’s population under different assumptions about population growth, using the 2021 census figures as the base.

The key statistics are –

• With net nil migration the population will be relatively stable until 2040. With net migration of 325 a year the population will increase to about 111,000 and with net migration of 700 a year to 120,000.
• Like most countries the population of Jersey is ageing. The working population is currently about 67,000. With net nil migration the working population will fall to 61,000 in 2040. With net migration of 325 a year it will fall to 66,000 and with net migration of 700 a year it will increase to 73,000.
• In 2021 there were 1.93 people of working age for every person of non-working age. With net nil migration the ratio will fall to 1.42 in 2040. With net migration of 325 a year it will fall to 1.50 and even with net migration of 700 a year it will fall to 1.56.
• The estimated population required to maintain living standards is calculated to be 128,000 in 2030 and 150,000 in 2040.

The Executive Summary of the report states that –

The policy intent of Ministers is that our community thrives, success should see living standards – defined as real GVA/person - to rise. However, indicative modelling suggests that to simply maintain current living standards, the total population could need to be as high as 150,000 by 2040. Ministers are not prepared to accept this scenario.

Sustained economic growth would enable living standards to be maintained with lower levels of inward migration and a smaller population. The Council of Ministers’ policy direction is to support economic growth both through increasing productivity in existing Island sectors and developing new, highly productive sectors. This will help to maintain the 2040 population level well below the 150,000 level.

The Future Economy Programme is developing a range of positive measures to improve current levels of economic activity, identify new economic sectors and create high quality, sustainable growth. The Economic Strategy is due to be published in September 2023. At this stage it is anticipated that inward migration will still be required but at a reasonable and sustainable level.

Integral to the identification of economic policies will be the capacity of Jersey’s infrastructure and the extent to which this may act as a constraint on population growth, or the rate of population growth.

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Further information

The Government of Jersey website includes a page Population and census statistics , which gives links to all the official census and population statistics.

The website https://boleat.com includes a page Jersey Population which provides access to papers analysing various aspects of Jersey’s population.

Two Policy Centre Policy Briefs provide more detailed information –

Population – covering population policy in detail.

Ageing population – covering trend in the age structure of the population and the implications of the ageing population.