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Population Policy Brief Update
The Policy Centre Jersey's Policy Brief on Population has been updated to include key data from the Government of Jersey's annual report on population policy published on the 12th June 2023.
The Brief summarises key statistics in the report–
- With net nil migration the population will be relatively stable until 2040. With net migration of 325 a year the population will increase to about 111,000 and with net migration of 700 a year to 120,000.
- Like most countries the population of Jersey is ageing. The working population is currently about 67,000. With net nil migration the working population will fall to 61,000 in 2040. With net migration of 325 a year it will fall to 66,000 and with net migration of 700 a year it will increase to 73,000.
- In 2021 there were 1.93 people of working age for every person of non-working age. With net nil migration the ratio will fall to 1.42 in 2040. With net migration of 325 a year it will fall to 1.50 and even with net migration of 700 a year it will fall to 1.56.
- The estimated population required to maintain living standards is calculated to be 128,000 in 2030 and 150,000 in 2040.
The Brief also quotes the policy intent of Ministers –
“that our community thrives, success should see living standards – defined as real GVA/person - to rise. However, indicative modelling suggests that to simply maintain current living standards, the total population could need to be as high as 150,000 by 2040. Ministers are not prepared to accept this scenario.
Sustained economic growth would enable living standards to be maintained with lower levels of inward migration and a smaller population. The Council of Ministers’ policy direction is to support economic growth both through increasing productivity in existing Island sectors and developing new, highly productive sectors. This will help to maintain the 2040 population level well below the 150,000 level.
The Future Economy Programme is developing a range of positive measures to improve current levels of economic activity, identify new economic sectors and create high quality, sustainable growth The Economic Strategy is due to be published in September 2023. At this stage it is anticipated that inward migration will still be required but at a reasonable and sustainable level.
Integral to the identification of economic policies will be the capacity of Jersey’s infrastructure and the extent to which this may act as a constraint on population growth, or the rate of population growth.”
The Policy Centre’s Policy Briefs each cover an area of policy and provide a summary of policy statements with links to relevant papers. They are continually updated.
