Policy Centre Brief reports lack of progress on Carbon Neutral Roadmap

A new Policy Brief has been published on progress on the implementation of Jersey’s Carbon Neutral Roadmap (CNR).The brief summarises the Carbon Neutral Strategy and the Carbon Neutral Roadmap, agreed by the States Assembly, noting that “the objective in the CNR is “at a minimum reduce emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030, and reduce them to 78% from baseline by 2035”.We have noted that Jersey has made considerable progress in reducing emissions – a 46% reduction between 1990 and 2021, an annual rate of about 2%. However, a significant proportion of this was accounted for by electricity supply being switched from an oil-fired power station to carbon-free nuclear and hydro electricity from France.To achieve the 2030 target requires a 30% reduction from the 2021 figure, an annual rate of about 5%. The Brief suggests that it is difficult to see how this can be achieved, given that there is no further scope to reduce emissions caused by electricity generation.We have also noted that the CNR sets out specific sub-targets to be met by 2030, in particular that 67% of vehicles would be decarbonised, but that it did not include any analysis of the effect of each of the specific measures on emissions. A report by PwC suggested that with no incentives, electric vehicles would account for 13% of the Jersey fleet by 2030, and with support 23%. Clearly, shifting the Jersey 2030 proportion from 13% to 67% is not attainable.The general conclusion is that the target of reducing emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030 cannot be achieved in the absence of significant policy measures necessary to cause a massive reduction in the use of oil products for road transport and heating, and that there is no evidence that such policies exist or are being planned.