Policy Centre Jersey

On 9 February 2024 the Policy Centre held a discussion meeting based around its Policy Brief Ageing Population. Simon Soar, Director of the Centre, chaired the meeting. Ian Cope, Chief Statistician and Director of Statistics and Analytics at the Government of Jersey, gave a presentation on population projections. This was followed by comments by James Linder, PwC, on implications for different sectors of the economy, and Rosemarie Finlay, Chief Executive, Family Nursing and Home Care, on implications for the health and care sectors. Following the presentations there was an open discussion.

60 people attended the meeting – members of the Council’s Advisory Council and invited guests from business, the charity sector, education, Government and the States Assembly.

Key points

The population of Jersey, like that of other countries, is rapidly ageing. With any migration assumption the number of people 65 and over will increase from 20,000 today to 26,000 by 2040.
The ageing population has significant implications for the structure of Jersey's economy, skills that will be needed, migration policy and public finances.
Policies are needed that help people stay healthier for longer.
People can be nudged in various ways to adopt healthier lifestyles, but equally some are concerned about a nanny state mentality.
To be able to cope with the implications of the ageing population it is important that Jersey has a healthy economy and the Island is facing some headwinds in this respect.
Government policies need to be based on a vision taking account of the ageing population.

Summary of presentation by Ian Cope

Between 2011 and 2021 the dependency ratio (non-working age to working age) increased from 46% to 52% and the old age dependency ratio (65+ to working age) increased from 21.5% to 27.5%.
The proportion of the population aged 65 and over increased slowly from 13% in 1961 to 15% in 2011 then quickly to 18% in 2021.
In 2021 the proportion of people who were economically active fell rapidly from 64% in the 60-64 age group, to 29% in the 65-69 age group, 13% in the 70-74 age group and 3% in the 75+ age group.
On any of the assumptions on net migration the population of those aged 65 and over would increase by around one third from just under 20,000 today to over 26,000 by 2040.
The old age dependency ratio with net annual immigration of 325 would increase rapidly from 27.5% in 2021 to 39.7% in 2041.

The Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey shows that pensioners are the group that find it least difficult to cope financially, while single parents and couples with children find it most difficult to cope. However, 66% of adults agreed that they were worried about their standard of living in retirement, that is those working now are less sanguine about their standard of living in retirement.

Summary of presentation by James Linder

The major economic impacts of an ageing population inJersey are likely to be -

Employment: changing profile of consumer demand, increased government spending on welfare needs and employment growth to support consumption by the elderly population.
Skills: skills need to mirror employment changes with more inward facing service jobs rather than outward facing export jobs. Economy-wide skills shortages will be exacerbated.
Migration: continued dependency on inward migration with the profile of inward migration likely to change. A war on talent as countries grapple with their own ageing populations.
Fiscal pressure: the current ratio of tax to GDP will be hard to maintain given that the cost of healthcare for the 85+ age group is three times that of the under 65's.
Productivity: the ageing population will have a significant drag on productivity. A shift to lower paid employment in healthcare and hospitality will have an impact on economic dynamism.
House prices: a less dynamic housing market will dampen overall property prices and reduce household wealth.

There is also a broader point in that the Jersey fertility rate is lower than comparable islands and advanced economies and that global economic growth is expected to decelerate, largely due to an ageing population. These factors will in turn have negative impacts on the Jersey economy. In addition to these expected changes there are also big unknowns around climate change, technology and conflict.

Economic opportunities and considerations can be summarised –

Summary of comments by Rosemarie Finlay

30% of people over 65 have multi-morbidity, presenting more than five chronic conditions. As the population ages there will be a big surge in the number of people with diabetes.
We need to change this not by building more expensive healthcare services but by adapting our environment and approach. This needs to be addressed not just on an individual basis but also through environmental factors.
There are many “blue zone” projects around the world that help people live longer and healthier lives, so reducing the cost of healthcare and increasing productivity. We need to stretch the number of years that people work.
People will engage with their communities if they feel well and feel that they are an important part of the community.
We need to nudge people into more healthy choices. Healthier choices need to be the easiest choices so there is a need to identify the biggest policy changes needed and then implement them. This applies to food and travel – it should be easier and safer for people to walk and cycle to work.
The same things that help people live long and healthy lives make life worth living.

Comments in open discussion

Japanese philosophy – the “younger older” person, who have skills to share and can contribute to the economy and pay tax.
Singapore has been successful in the way it approaches the issue –with a “whole system” approach, which Jersey could easily emulate.
65 is not the age to stop doing things but it is almost mandated in our culture. Being active is the most important thing. People need to be incentivised to look further into the future.
How people live their lives is up to them; the nanny state concept is misconstructed.
Implications of the numbers are profound. In order for people to live young healthy lives the economy has to be right, but it is running in to headwinds. More foresight in economic planning is needed. There is little evidence of this. What is long-term care plan based on? There is a “book-keeping gap” today and ultimately taxes will have to go up.
Jersey’s economy is based on financial services but policy is encouraging some businesses to consider leaving the Island.
“Blue zone” projects can help address the gap. Jersey is a small state which can be agile and adapt quickly to changing circumstances.
There is an increasing problem of loneliness among older people, particularly those whose children no longer live in Jersey. Also, most older people like to have a car because of the mobility aspect; cycling and walking is not an option for everyone.
Digital Jersey is beginning some work on the ageing population, working with Age Concern. Wearable devices and sensors in homes have an important role to play.
Pensions schemes are often not funded and given the ageing population there is an affordability problem.
“Bringing people in” to deal with the ageing population will be more difficult as every western country will be trying to do it.
The healthcare issue needs to be addressed both through prevention and also making health services more available.
Community care plays an important role in helping to keep people healthy.
Healthy habits need to be embedded at an early age.
Transferable skills are important to improve labour mobility.
Do we need data more regularly than relying on the 10-year censuses? Statistics Jersey is in fact already using much data that government already holds to publish relevant statistics and is willing to consider any perceived gaps.
A public health strategy is due to be published shortly. The British National Health Service is better called the National Illness Service; the better public health is the less the need for treatment.
The group in Jersey most able to cope financially is now the elderly, but pensioners still enjoy subsidies such as free bus travel. It is more difficult to sustain such policies when the real difficulties are in younger age groups.
In the last election 53% of the 65+ group voted but only 17% of the under 35s. Policies can try to deal with the age imbalance run into a political problem - things can be done by politicians only if they are elected.
Government policies need to be based on a vision taking account of the ageing population.

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News

Note of discussion meeting on ageing population, 9 February 2024